Here’s How Macron Can Win in 2022.
As France prepares for another likely Macron vs Le Pen run-off, what can the president do to boost his chances of re-election?
In politics — as with most things in life — you’re only a newcomer once. In April 2016, Emmanuel Macron burst onto France’s presidential political scene with his new party ‘En Marche!’ (On the Move). Macron, then 38, had made use of a vacuum within the centre-left and constructed a ‘big tent’ party with three bold objectives: to make the French economy more competitive, shake up France’s political system and take on Marine Le Pen’s ‘Front Nationale’.
As Macron made his way through the 2017 campaign and matured as a candidate, it became clear he was both an articulate man and a perfectionist. Everything was stage-managed by the then presidential hopeful to be visually arresting, symbolic and a stark contrast to his other more established presidential rivals. Macron had a bold message for the country and a clear idea of his role in making this message a reality. At the 2016 Republican National Convention, President Trump bellowed ‘I alone can fix it’. In a similar vein, Macron also presented himself as a confident and capable lone outsider, willing to blow up the existing system. It is after all, no accident ‘En Marche!’ shares his initials.
Since the election, Macron’s centralised campaign has converted into an incredibly centralised Elysee Palace. Now serving as the presidential incumbent, this behaviour has been characterized by opponents as uncomfortably close to that of the great Sun King. Thanks to the gilet jaunes protests, Brexit, the Benalla affair, an international pandemic and subsequent recession, much of the initial shine has worn off. As Macron approaches the end of his term, he remains an energetic but politically compromised individual, bogged down by the daily grind of governance and the realities of France’s current political settlement.
Let’s go back to those two characteristics, first identified at LREM’s launch over five years ago. President Macron must remain articulate. In an already crowded field, voters will want a convincing reminder of what went right and a cohesive explanation of the president’s political shortcomings. Opponents standing beside the president will naturally seek to provide a harsh general assessment of the past four years. Macron must take the initiative and show French viewers at home some humility and accept that his presidency has, to date, largely neglected to encourage and nurture social cohesion. As for that second characteristic — a tendency for perfection — Macron cannot afford it and nor is it necessary.
There is a risk Macron will become overly consumed by an effort to revive the fresh and energetic image of his first campaign. But this is not just a matter of arguing that the job isn’t done. Since 2017, Macron has made good on his promise to bring fundamental change to the national economy. Is it not clear however, what this is all for. The case for economic agility is not enough for families who’ve experienced a painful and gruelling past eighteen months. To win another term, LREM must reassert the moral objective of a post-Covid economy. Of course Macron will continue to make the case for a liberal market economy, but he must be clearer on the moral purpose of this objective and demonstrate how his political project is committed to improving the lives of working families as much as the stock market.
The president is accused of representing France’s arrogant elite and having failed to address the country’s numerous social inequalities. In the last head-to-head debate, Le Pen labelled her opponent the “smirking banker”. At the next debate however, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will have left the political stage and resigned her position as de facto leader of Europe. Though it may be tempting for Macron, with his avidly pro-European agenda, to make this vacancy a key focus of the campaign, it could well prove to be the most lethal for LREM. Le Pen’s sudden u-turn on the two defining issues of her political career — French membership of the EU and the single currency — suggests European leadership is a likely target issue for National Rally. Le Pen’s newfound tolerance for the bloc and determination to drive change from the inside could attract crucial support form centre-right moderates who remain cautious of the Le Pen brand.
At this point, Macron must highlight Le Pen’s flip flopping as a last act of political desperation. Le Pen and her supporters may justify this u-turn as a responsible reaction to a change in the political landscape. Though elected to the French National Assembly in 2017, it marked her fifth attempt and came six years after she took over the party leadership. But in her third consecutive bid for the Elysee, the attempt at moderation may not be enough to revive Le Pen’s reputation to win in the second round. Marine Le Pen may have cancelled her father’s party membership and formally changed the movement’s name from ‘National Front’ to ‘National Rally’, but underneath these cosmetic changes, the same leader with the same political motivations remains in charge.
I believe President Macron will struggle to balance his desire to inherit Chancellor Merkel’s position and demonstrate a willingness to concentrate on and resolve France’s domestic political and cultural issues. The task is to convince voters there is no real trade-off between a presidency focused on France’s economic recovery and the bloc’s political revival. It may come down to National Rally arguing for France to step up and lead Europe to advance French interests, and LREM arguing for France to step up and lead Europe for the good of the bloc. This may end any talk of ‘Frexit’ until 2027, but a debate framed in this manner would lend itself comfortably to the far-right.
“Macron will struggle to balance his desire to inherit Chancellor Merkel’s position whilst also being seen to address France’s domestic political and cultural issues.”
Shallow commentary has suggested Macron will counter his centre-right themed first term with a plan to shift firmly to the centre-left in a second. But despite Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire having boosted government spending to Socialist Party levels to tackle the economic fallout of Covid-19, the country technically experienced a “double-dip” recession last month as the economy shrank by 0.1%. The fiscal stimulus itself may not only pose a financial problem for Macron in the long-run, but also a political headache in the months ahead.
